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2018 Governor · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 641 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 36%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.96% · Republican 30.92%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 36 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.958 − 30.918 = 24.040
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (24.040) = -11.040
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.040| = 11.040

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56733, race ID 154 (538 database).