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2018 Senate · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 641 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 35%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.98% · Republican 28.56%

D+33.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.982 − 28.560 = 33.422
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (33.422) = -10.422
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.422| = 10.422

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56733, race ID 115 (538 database).