2018 Senate · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44.4% · Republican 42%
D+2.4
The certified result
Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44.4 − 42 = 2.40
- Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
- Signed miss = 2.40 − (-5.890) = 8.290
- Absolute miss = |8.290| = 8.290
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56719, race ID 102 (538 database).