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2018 Governor · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 46.7%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 46.7 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (4.084) = -7.484
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.484| = 7.484

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56718, race ID 151 (538 database).