Skip to content

2018 Governor · FL

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 44.8%

D+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 44.8 = 4.70
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 4.70 − (-0.395) = 5.095
  4. Absolute miss = |5.095| = 5.095

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56717, race ID 138 (538 database).