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2018 Senate · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 49.1%

R+5.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 49.1 = -5.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = -5.60 − (2.345) = -7.944
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.944| = 7.944

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56716, race ID 96 (538 database).