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2018 Governor · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.5% · Republican 56.4%

R+19.9

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.5 − 56.4 = -19.90
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -19.90 − (-14.160) = -5.739
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.739| = 5.739

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56716, race ID 133 (538 database).