Skip to content

2018 Senate · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 42.7%

D+2.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 42.7 = 2.90
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = 2.90 − (5.027) = -2.127
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.127| = 2.127

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56712, race ID 112 (538 database).