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2018 Senate · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.7% · Republican 47.5%

R+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.96% · Republican 47.61%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.7 − 47.5 = -4.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.956 − 47.611 = 2.345
  3. Signed miss = -4.80 − (2.345) = -7.144
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.144| = 7.144

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56710, race ID 96 (538 database).