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2018 Governor · AZ

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2018-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 1,400 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34.8% · Republican 57%

R+22.2

The certified result

Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%

R+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34.8 − 57 = -22.20
  2. Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
  3. Signed miss = -22.20 − (-14.160) = -8.039
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.039| = 8.039

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56710, race ID 133 (538 database).