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2018 Governor · TN

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 480 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-21.007) = 12.007
  4. Absolute miss = |12.007| = 12.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56705, race ID 162 (538 database).