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2018 Senate · TN

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 480 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-10.787) = 10.787
  4. Absolute miss = |10.787| = 10.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56705, race ID 120 (538 database).