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2018 Senate · TX

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,211 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 49%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.568) = 2.567
  4. Absolute miss = |2.567| = 2.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56702, race ID 121 (538 database).