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2018 House · IA-3

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 380 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 44.8%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 47.14%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 44.8 = 0.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.304 − 47.140 = 2.164
  3. Signed miss = 0.90 − (2.164) = -1.264
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.264| = 1.264

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56672, race ID 299 (538 database).