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2018 House · IA-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 373 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.6% · Republican 39.7%

D+12.9

The certified result

Democrat 54.79% · Republican 42.60%

D+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.6 − 39.7 = 12.90
  2. Actual margin = 54.790 − 42.596 = 12.194
  3. Signed miss = 12.90 − (12.194) = 0.705
  4. Absolute miss = |0.705| = 0.705

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56672, race ID 298 (538 database).