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2018 Governor · IA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 1,462 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48.9%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.53% · Republican 50.26%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48.9 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.527 − 50.260 = -2.733
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-2.733) = -1.167
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.167| = 1.167

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56672, race ID 143 (538 database).