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2018 Governor · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 604 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.9% · Republican 46.1%

D+4.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.54% · Republican 48.45%

D+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.9 − 46.1 = 4.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.538 − 48.445 = 1.093
  3. Signed miss = 4.80 − (1.093) = 3.707
  4. Absolute miss = |3.707| = 3.707

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56671, race ID 165 (538 database).