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2018 Senate · WI

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 604 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.1% · Republican 44.4%

D+8.7

The certified result

Democrat 55.36% · Republican 44.53%

D+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.1 − 44.4 = 8.70
  2. Actual margin = 55.357 − 44.532 = 10.825
  3. Signed miss = 8.70 − (10.825) = -2.125
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.125| = 2.125

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56671, race ID 127 (538 database).