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2018 Governor · GA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 724 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 49.4%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 50.22%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 49.4 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.833 − 50.222 = -1.389
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-1.389) = -0.711
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.711| = 0.711

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56670, race ID 139 (538 database).