Skip to content

2018 Governor · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 2,178 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 34%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 34 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (23.898) = -4.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.897| = 4.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56669, race ID 135 (538 database).