Skip to content

2018 Governor · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 41%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.84% · Republican 42.43%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.844 − 42.427 = 11.417
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (11.417) = -3.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.417| = 3.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56652, race ID 149 (538 database).