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2018 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 40%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.97% · Republican 42.35%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.971 − 42.351 = 10.620
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (10.620) = -2.619
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.619| = 2.619

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56652, race ID 129 (538 database).