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2018 Senate · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52.4% · Republican 42%

D+10.4

The certified result

Democrat 53.41% · Republican 46.57%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.4 − 42 = 10.40
  2. Actual margin = 53.411 − 46.566 = 6.845
  3. Signed miss = 10.40 − (6.845) = 3.554
  4. Absolute miss = |3.554| = 3.554

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56646, race ID 117 (538 database).