2018 Governor · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 47%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.60% · Republican 50.97%
R+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 47.597 − 50.974 = -3.377
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.377) = 0.378
- Absolute miss = |0.378| = 0.378
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56644, race ID 161 (538 database).