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2018 Governor · TN

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 764 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-21.007) = 11.007
  4. Absolute miss = |11.007| = 11.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56641, race ID 162 (538 database).