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2018 Senate · TN

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 764 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-10.787) = 6.787
  4. Absolute miss = |6.787| = 6.787

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56641, race ID 120 (538 database).