2018 Senate · FL
SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 781 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.123) = 2.123
- Absolute miss = |2.123| = 2.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56640, race ID 100 (538 database).