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2018 House · WV-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 341 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 57.4%

R+25.4

The certified result

Democrat 35.42% · Republican 64.58%

R+29.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 57.4 = -25.40
  2. Actual margin = 35.425 − 64.575 = -29.150
  3. Signed miss = -25.40 − (-29.150) = 3.750
  4. Absolute miss = |3.750| = 3.750

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56634, race ID 598 (538 database).