Skip to content

2018 Senate · TN

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 632 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.6% · Republican 52%

R+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.6 − 52 = -8.40
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -8.40 − (-10.787) = 2.387
  4. Absolute miss = |2.387| = 2.387

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56633, race ID 120 (538 database).