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2018 Senate · TX

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 781 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 50.3%

R+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 50.89%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 50.3 = -3.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.325 − 50.893 = -2.568
  3. Signed miss = -3.10 − (-2.568) = -0.533
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.533| = 0.533

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56632, race ID 121 (538 database).