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2018 House · OK-5

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 440 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37.1% · Republican 48.6%

R+11.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.70% · Republican 49.30%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.1 − 48.6 = -11.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.698 − 49.302 = 1.396
  3. Signed miss = -11.50 − (1.396) = -12.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.897| = 12.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56624, race ID 485 (538 database).