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2018 House · NY-19

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 609 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 39.00%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.079 − 38.996 = 8.083
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (8.083) = -8.083
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.083| = 8.083

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56621, race ID 456 (538 database).