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2018 Governor · FL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 495 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 47.3%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 47.3 = -0.60
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = -0.60 − (-0.395) = -0.205
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.205| = 0.205

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56610, race ID 138 (538 database).