2018 House · PA-16
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 405 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 47%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.30% · Republican 51.58%
R+4.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 47.298 − 51.582 = -4.284
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-4.284) = 8.283
- Absolute miss = |8.283| = 8.283
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56609, race ID 506 (538 database).