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2018 House · PA-8

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 446 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 40%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.64% · Republican 45.36%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 40 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.642 − 45.358 = 9.284
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (9.284) = 7.716
  4. Absolute miss = |7.716| = 7.716

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56608, race ID 498 (538 database).