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2018 House · PA-13

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 303 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 29.51% · Republican 70.49%

R+41.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 29.508 − 70.492 = -40.984
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-40.984) = 19.985
  4. Absolute miss = |19.985| = 19.985

The poll overstated the Democrat by 20.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56607, race ID 503 (538 database).