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2018 Senate · TN

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 497 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 50.5%

R+5.8

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 54.71%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 50.5 = -5.80
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 54.707 = -10.787
  3. Signed miss = -5.80 − (-10.787) = 4.987
  4. Absolute miss = |4.987| = 4.987

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56604, race ID 120 (538 database).