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2018 Governor · NV

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 622 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.39% · Republican 45.31%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.394 − 45.310 = 4.084
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.084) = -3.084
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.084| = 3.084

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56601, race ID 151 (538 database).