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2018 Senate · NV

SSRS · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 622 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.027) = -2.027
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.027| = 2.027

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56601, race ID 112 (538 database).