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2018 Governor · NH

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,139 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 50.6%

R+7.3

The certified result

Democrat 45.74% · Republican 52.78%

R+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 50.6 = -7.30
  2. Actual margin = 45.739 − 52.783 = -7.044
  3. Signed miss = -7.30 − (-7.044) = -0.256
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.256| = 0.256

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56598, race ID 152 (538 database).