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2018 House · ME-2

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 441 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 45.6%

D+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 49.38%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 45.6 = 1.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.624 − 49.376 = 1.248
  3. Signed miss = 1.10 − (1.248) = -0.147
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.147| = 0.147

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56597, race ID 364 (538 database).