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2018 House · ME-1

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56.2% · Republican 31%

D+25.2

The certified result

Democrat 58.82% · Republican 32.51%

D+26.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.2 − 31 = 25.20
  2. Actual margin = 58.820 − 32.506 = 26.314
  3. Signed miss = 25.20 − (26.314) = -1.114
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.114| = 1.114

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56597, race ID 363 (538 database).