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2018 Governor · ME

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 883 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 41.7%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.89% · Republican 43.18%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 41.7 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.892 − 43.178 = 7.714
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.714) = 0.286
  4. Absolute miss = |0.286| = 0.286

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56597, race ID 145 (538 database).