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2018 Senate · ME

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 883 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 5.8% · Republican 37.2%

R+31.4

The certified result

Democrat 10.45% · Republican 35.23%

R+24.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 5.8 − 37.2 = -31.40
  2. Actual margin = 10.446 − 35.230 = -24.784
  3. Signed miss = -31.40 − (-24.784) = -6.616
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.616| = 6.616

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56597, race ID 103 (538 database).