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2018 Governor · CT

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 780 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.5% · Republican 39.3%

D+6.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.10% · Republican 44.41%

D+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.5 − 39.3 = 6.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.098 − 44.409 = 3.689
  3. Signed miss = 6.20 − (3.689) = 2.511
  4. Absolute miss = |2.511| = 2.511

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56596, race ID 137 (538 database).