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2018 Senate · NJ

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 814 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 46%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 42.83%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 46 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.007 − 42.828 = 11.179
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (11.179) = -3.179
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.179| = 3.179

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56589, race ID 113 (538 database).