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2018 House · PA-9

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 271 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.25% · Republican 59.75%

R+19.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.254 − 59.746 = -19.492
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-19.492) = -1.509
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.509| = 1.509

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56581, race ID 499 (538 database).