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2018 Governor · TN

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 780 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 56%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.55% · Republican 59.56%

R+21.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 56 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.553 − 59.560 = -21.007
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-21.007) = 9.007
  4. Absolute miss = |9.007| = 9.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56580, race ID 162 (538 database).