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2018 House · PA-11

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 311 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.02% · Republican 58.98%

R+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.024 − 58.976 = -17.952
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-17.952) = 13.952
  4. Absolute miss = |13.952| = 13.952

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56579, race ID 501 (538 database).