2018 Senate · IN
Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2018-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46.2% · Republican 49.1%
R+2.9
The certified result
Democrat 44.84% · Republican 50.73%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.2 − 49.1 = -2.90
- Actual margin = 44.842 − 50.732 = -5.890
- Signed miss = -2.90 − (-5.890) = 2.990
- Absolute miss = |2.990| = 2.990
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56557, race ID 102 (538 database).